Progressive or predictive dialers – What choice is right for your call center?

By Patrick Conroy, CTO, Callfinity. As published in the October 2009 issue of Call Center Times, page 18.

“This is James Smith. Sorry I can’t take your call at this time but if you will leave your name and number, I’ll get back with you as soon as possible.”

That scenario probably sounds all too familiar. There’s a good reason for that and the odds are definitely not in your favor. Unless your business call has been pre-scheduled, the odds are only about one out of ten of that you will connect with the right party on your first attempt.

One Out Of Four

The probability improves to one out of four when calling a residence number, but that still means 75% of the time you reach voicemail, an answering machine, a busy signal, or no answer at all.

For employees that do a lot of outbound calling, this inability to connect wastes a lot of time. Employees may spend hours shuffling through phone numbers, placing calls, and leaving messages that don’t get returned.

History of Innovation

Over the years, several innovations were developed to help deal with this problem. In the 70s we saw the first auto dialers. These devices called pre-programmed numbers by touching a single key. Auto dialers and speed dial were for individual use.

In the late 80s and early 90s, a new generation of dialing devices emerged that were designed for contact centers. There are currently three classes of large scale automated dialers: preview dialers, progressive dialers, and predictive dialers.

Preview, Progressive, and Predictive Dialers

With a preview dialer, agents initiate the call by clicking on a phone number that has been programmed into the dialer. This method assures that an agent will be available if a connection is made.

A progressive dialer monitors an agent’s status and then initiates outbound calls only when an agent is available to take the call. Like preview dialers, this method assures that an agent will be available when a connection is made, but the timing of the call attempt is determined by the device, not the agent.

Predictive dialers use sophisticated algorithms to match agent availability to live connections. Most systems “learn” from actual experience and adjust the call pacing to match agent availability. Since availability depends on the algorithm, there will unavoidably be many instances when a live contact is ready to accept the call but an agent is not.

Cut Costs by 300%

Predictive dialers are the most sophisticated solution. They automatically place calls from call lists, detect a live answer, and then direct the call to an available agent. Predictive dialers use advanced heuristic algorithms to predict when an agent is available to take a call. The object is to consistently get an answered call to an available agent, thus maximizing agent productivity and cutting costs by as much as 300% by reducing headcount and achieving better utilization of network services.

Pros and Cons

The key difference between predictive dialers and progressive dialers is the level of certainty that a live call will actually be connected to an available agent. Predictive dialers rely on past history and data inputs like the number of agents on staff and average time to process each call. In collection environments, handle time is notoriously variable.

Further, agent availability is highly irregular. Unless some programming action is taken or the dialer is tightly integrated with an advanced workforce management system, the device does not know if some agents called in sick that day, were late to work, or are off on vacation. The predictive dialer will continue to place calls at the same pace it did the day before until it “learns” that agent availability is significantly lower and adjusts the calling pattern. In business-to-business telemarketing or sales lead generation, predictive dialers are often not practical.

The call list may likely only have the main number of a business, not the direct line of the desired party.

With a progressive dialer, the sales rep can intercept the call at the auto attendant and enter the correct extension number. If the sales rep reaches voicemail then he or she can leave a personalized message. The downside of progressive dialers is that the likelihood of connecting to the desired party has not changed. There will still be time spent listening to call progress tones and failing to connect with the right party.

However, predictive dialers aren’t ideal for every environment. Despite sophisticated algorithms, there’s always the possibility of call abandonments because the agent was not promptly connected to the called party.

Few business practices are more annoying to consumers than being called by someone you don’t know for reasons you don’t understand and then placed on hold for an extended period until the agent is ready to talk to you. This is not good business etiquette and in some cases it‘s against the law.

Progressive dialing differs from predictive dialing in that calls aren’t dialed until an agent is known to be immediately available to take the call. For business-to-business calls, progressive dialing is the only practical option. In general, the more important it is to connect to the called party, the more advantageous it is to go the progressive dialing route.

Fortunately, organizations do not have to make a choice.

ContextDialer from Callfinity is available in three modes and the difference between those modes is important.

Preview mode allows an agent to see the record first then dial when the agent clicks a button.

Predictive mode dials automatically and predicts both agent availability and performs optional answering machine detection. This results in a delay between the time the called party answers the call and when it’s transferred to an available agent.

Progressive mode is a happy medium between preview mode and predictive dialing. Calls are placed automatically, but only after an agent is "reserved" for the call and determines if the person answering is human or not. There is no delay. Both parties are immediately connected.

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